The news of the assassination of businessman and former presidential candidate, Eric Jean Baptiste reverberated like an electric shock through Haiti and abroad. Mr. Jean-Baptiste was a philanthropist and the leader of the political party Rally of Progressive National Democrats (RNDP). He was best known for his lottery business. However, he built his political profile through his campaign against the United Nations (UN) mission in Haiti. He was particularly angry by the introduction of cholera by the UN Nepalese troops.
As with many similar high-profile assassinations, we may never know who killed Mr. Jean-Baptiste or why. His name will grow the list of people who will never get justice. This list includes President Moise, the Bar association’s president Mr. Dorval, journalist Diego Charles, political activist Antoinette Duclair, and the young student Évelyne Sincère. Ms. Sincère's case was a particular affront to the conscience of the nation. She was kidnapped, raped, murdered, and thrown in a heap of garbage because her family was unable to pay the ransom of 15,000 Gourdes. This is approximately $120 US dollars at today’s exchange rate.
Mr. Jean-Baptiste was killed on his way home from a radio station where he presented a weekly editorial. His last public words were his admonishment of those who support another “invasion” of Haiti by international forces. He called them anti-nationalists. This macabre plan, he claimed, is to maintain Haitians in a state of mental and physical poverty. He believed it was to ensure the economic and political elite stranglehold over the country. He also believed the idea of intervention was a plan concocted by the international community, with the help of the anti-nationalists. The purpose was to steal Haiti’s rich mineral resources.
It is the height of irony that those who support an international intervention have seized on the assassination of Mr. Jean-Baptiste’s murder to make their case.
This latest murder has also brought to sharp relief the despair that most Haitians feel. That is, no one is safe. Yet, there are no solutions in sight, which begs two fundamental questions. How much more of this crisis can the Haitian people take? And if the people could speak for themselves, what would they say about international intervention?
Is there a majority in support of intervention?
In a democracy, political candidates, activists, journalists, scholars, civil society, etc. all have their roles and their platforms. The best method for people to express their aspirations is through elections. It also allows the people to exercise their power to choose or change their leaders. Haiti has not had elections for nearly 6 years. Citizens have no say in the affairs of the state. As a result, they have resorted to protests. This method has been the only way to make their demands for basic rights, and security.
As activists who interact with other activists, we can find ourselves in an echo chamber where our ideas and belief get reinforced. Our limited movements and overreliance on social media lead to overexposure to voices that hold similar opinions. The confirmation of our beliefs leads us to hold our opinions as absolute truth. In Haiti, there are no other objective ways to gauge public sentiment on key issues. This leaves room for any opinion, even a minority one, to appear to be representative. One way to overcome that challenge is through the use of public opinion polls/surveys. One such attempt is the recent survey conducted by SOCIODIG, an independent Haitian research company that polled over 1000 randomly selected and statistically representative Haitians living in Haiti, in March 2022. It generally concluded that “a majority of the Haitian population favor UN support if not intervention to resolve the ongoing political and security crisis in the country.”
Diving into some of the charts and numbers
When asked about the “Biggest Problems Facing Haiti,” an overwhelming majority of the survey respondents, 77 percent, believe armed groups (gangs) and kidnappings were the “biggest problems facing Haiti.”
Indeed, due to its instability, Haiti continues to be classified as a key drug transit point in the Caribbean. Haiti has the status of one of the most corrupt countries in the Americas due to the absence of state authority. There is also collusion between the gangs and the economic and political actors.
The population is paying the price for Haiti’s lack of governance and the dissolution of state institutions. In his October 8, 2022 letter to the President of the Security Council, the Secretary-General reported that “authorities registered 877 abductions, including 182 women, 13 girls and 15 boys” in seven months. The UN Integrated office in Haiti, cited 780 murders in the first 5 months of 2022, alone.
A central sticking point in the debate around insecurity is the question about its underlying cause. When asked about the “Biggest Two Causes of Current Crime and Unrest” nearly three out of four respondents, 70 percent, said the government. The gangs, political opposition, and foreigners received 40, 28, and 15 percent respectively.
Over the past eight weeks, thousands have taken to the streets to protest against the recent increase in fuel prices. More recently it has been against what they see as a march toward an invasion and occupation. Despite the dire situation and increased discontent, the opposition to de facto PM Henry and his government has not been able to build a mass popular movement. While there are many theories as to why that is, the opposition has not conducted any scientific assessment of why their messages have not galvanized the majority of Haitians.
The Sociodig’s survey attempts to tackle the thorny question of international intervention in Haiti. The results – if they can be validated – trend against the position of the political elite, which is broadly against any international intervention. The survey’s authors acknowledge that their conclusion will “surely be controversial.” However, they note from “other nationally representative surveys that an overwhelming majority of Haitians do not trust their own government. They do not trust local leaders, they do not trust their senators and deputies, and they do not trust their ministers.
The camp that is against any intervention, which included Mr. Jean-Baptiste has not yet offered a viable alternative. The pro-intervention camp is careful to note that they are not asking for invasion or occupation. They request a contingent of a specialized police force that can supplement the Haitian National Police. They have also asked for weapons, ammunition, and training. On this point, the SocioDig survey has much to offer.
When asked about the actions that the UN could take to support the PNH, 83 percent answered that “Any support should include vetting of PNH candidates to assure they have no connection to gangs.” 80 percent responded that “Support should include UN police working and fighting side by side with PNH against the gangs.
A hotbed of instability with no solution in sight
The Haiti crisis is already affecting the region and an unbiased review leads to the conclusion that there will be an intervention. What is happening in Haiti is not just an internal affair, it concerns the international community because it is about other countries’ internal stability.
Gangs will continue to fill the power vacuum left by government institutions as they gain more territory. They will also expand and strengthen their network with other gangs in the Caribbean and South America.
People will look for alternatives as the situation worsens and they fall further into despair. One of the most rational choices will be to migrate to other countries in the region. This includes the Dominican Republic, Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and the United States.
The resulting increase in the trade of guns, drugs, and human trafficking to other gangs in the region will force the international community to intervene - whether Haitians want it or not. An intervention may take place under the principle of “responsibility to protect” or for the interests of countries in the region. Unfortunately, it will focus only on reducing the threat Haiti poses to regional stability and ignore the difficult but necessary work of nation-building. This may be a saving grace because the work of nation-building must be the work of Haitians.
As Haitians try to survive Haiti’s socio-political and economic crises, they are presented with many options by the opposition that are unachievable and often non-options by the regime that become reality. There is no clear way of determining what the majority might want. The responders were asked whether they thought the UN should help Haiti. On an intensity scale of 1 to 7 (1 the lowest and 7 the highest), 58 percent of respondents responded in the affirmative. If intensity level 5 is added, which is above average, then grows to 73% of respondents.
This survey provides a window into the challenges as perceived by the population and raises critical questions for policymakers. While we need to better understand the will of the people, looking at the disastrous local conditions and the population’s daily reality can help one get some insight into the responses captured in Chart 21.
Given the discussions that are heard on radio talk shows, online, and even in protest slogans, this chart raises two important questions. If the responses to this survey question are even half right, first, what are the implications for policy analysts and policymakers? Second, what is the weight of the voices opposing foreign intervention?
This past week, a coalition of Human rights organizations wrote to President Biden. They made a strong moral and even historical argument against US military intervention and asked the President to stop his administration’s support for the de facto regime. The Hill quoted the group’s acknowledgment that the situation on the ground is dire. They observed that “nearly half the country is facing severe food insecurity and limited access to clean water; cholera, introduced by UN peacekeepers more than a decade ago, has rapidly reemerged; and fuel — critical to basic life, including water purification and electronic communication — is unavailable or prohibitively expensive. Compounding these issues, violence and insecurity have reached exceptional levels, and have particularly affected women, children, and the most marginalized.” The article highlighted that “ Haitian civil society has flatly rejected foreign military intervention as a solution, despite Henry’s appeal.” This appeal was the de facto regime letter to the UN secretary General to request “the immediate deployment of a specialized armed force, in sufficient quantity.”
In another article published by CBC titled “Battling Haiti's gangs — the mission no nation seems to want” the journalist concluded, “The Haitian opposition recognizes that it will need foreign help to reverse the country's slide into anarchy.” The article quoted Ms. “Monique Clesca, a former UN official and now a member of the Montana Group coalition of political parties and civil society organizations that have been negotiating with the Ariel Henry government for a transition to democracy.” Ms. Clesca acknowledged Haiti has “humongous security issues." She further added "just as we are in a constitutional crisis, we are in a judiciary crisis, we are in an executive crisis, we are in a police crisis. Yes, Haiti is in massive crisis mode.” Her proposed solution is in line with the Montana team’s recent request to Secretary Blinken in which they asked the US to provide Haiti with technical assistance and equipment. It is not clear, however, whether this assistance, if provided, would go to the de facto regime or some other structure.
Conclusion
It has been six years since Haiti has had elections. Its citizens have been deprived of the opportunity to select leaders who can be accountable to them. The current de facto regime which was not elected has shown its incompetence, corruption, lethargy, and complete disregard for the Haitian people.
As a result, gangs have expanded their stranglehold over the population. Haiti is sliding into anarchy. The population’s despair is growing as the political class engages in mutually assured destruction. The de facto regime has requested the deployment of foreign troops to help deal with the gangs. Since that request, the opposition voices have grown louder against Mr. Henry but also against any international intervention. In the cacophony of voices and demands, it is right to question whether Haiti’s political elite is truly speaking for the people.
Given the lack of opportunities for the population to express its aspiration, they have taken to the streets in protests. This method of last resort allows Haitian citizens to express their displeasure. However, it has shown its limits in Haiti’s multi-layered crises. Another option for policymakers to glean public opinion is to use public opinion polls/surveys. In March 2022, Sociodig, an independent Haitian research company, tackled this challenge by polling over 1000 randomly selected and statistically representative Haitians living in Haiti.
Sociodig's report concluded that “a majority of the Haitian population favor UN support if not intervention to resolve the ongoing political and security crisis in the country.”
When asked about the “Biggest Problems Facing Haiti,” an overwhelming majority of the survey respondents, 77 percent, believe armed groups (gangs) and kidnappings were the “biggest problems facing Haiti.” When asked about the actions that the UN could take to support the PNH, 83 percent answered that “Any support should include vetting of PNH candidates to assure they have no connection to gangs.” 80 percent responded that “Support should include UN police working and fighting side by side with PNH against the gangs. On the question of whether the UN should help the “PNH in fighting gangs. Fully 60 percent of respondents rated their support as the strongest possible #6 or #7 on a scale of one to seven.”
Sociodig’s survey and report seem to counter the general view of many in Haiti’s political elite. It raises important questions for Haitians, policymakers, and friends of Haiti who are concerned about the country’s disintegration. As Haitians in the country and abroad seek a consensus on how best to move forward, research like the one done by Sociodig will be an important tool for political activists and policymakers. These tools have their use, biases, and limitations. But until there is a system for Haitians to express themselves, surveys like this one should be encouraged to gauge the public’s opinion on issues of national interest.
NOTE: the link to the Sociodig’s report can be found in my personal One Drive folder (https://1drv.ms/u/s!AmxMkoQzlcuyjXtLmB6tb_mmvo9e?e=XWvdcP). I have no connection to Sociodig.
